There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates much like some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may have the privilege of working with some sort of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Plenty of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. This is due to most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, if data sgp placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For example, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that may help you in the long term. First of all, the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 and even 10. The difference between your house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.